Raptors: Ball v.1.5

In the past, I've talked about (and tried to quantify) how rare of a season Chris Bosh is having. A few people chuckled when I wrote some of the things I wrote because they said there was no way Bosh could keep up his level of production.

They were wrong. Bosh has been amazingly consistent all season, and he's even slightly improved his performance of late. But back to the "rare" comment, consider:

Since the turn of the decade, only four players have averaged at least 24 points and 11 rebounds in a season:

2003-04 Kevin Garnett + ^ (22) ---LCF---

2002-03 Shaquille O'Neal + (11) ---L2ND---

2001-02 Tim Duncan + ^ (7) ---L2ND---

2000-01 Shaquille O'Neal + (11) ---WON NBA TITLE

2000-01 Chris Webber + (72) ---L2ND---

a) denotes 1st team all-NBA: +

b) denotes NBA MVP: ^

c) denotes rank in Bill Simmons' "Book of Basketball" NBA Hall of Fame pyramid: ()

d) denotes how the player fared in the post-season --- ---

How's that for a confusing, unreadable list? There's a few points I'm trying to make here:

Just four guys in an entire decade is pretty impressive

It'll be even rarer if Bosh can have a season like this AND lose in the first round of the playoffs.... how rare you ask? I'm glad you asked!

STAT OF THE DAY

You have to go back 16 years to find a player that averaged at least 24 points and 11 rebounds in a season that didn't at least make it to the 2nd round of the playoffs (Shaquille O'Neal, 93-94). After that, there were 14 seasons (half of them belonging to Shaq) where a player had averaged a 24/11 and made it at least to the second round. ANYWAYS, back to the bullets:

Based on the list above, it seems that it would be impossible to justify not having Bosh on the all-NBA 1st team this season if he keeps up with these numbers

But I think I can justify it. Despite the fact that Bosh is having a season that rivals those of recent hall of famers, I don't think he's an all-NBA 1st teamer. Here's why:

If we assume that LeBron James' spot as one of the all-NBA forwards is etched in stone (a safe assumption), that leaves one spot open for another forward among those listed below.

C. Bosh - 24 pts, 11 reb, 2 ast, 26.1 PER

C. Anthony - 30 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 24.6 PER

K. Durant - 30 pts, 7 reb, 3 ast, 25.2 PER

D. Nowitzki - 25 pts, 8 reb, 2 ast, 23.0 PER

T. Duncan - 20 pts, 11 reb, 3 ast, 27.3 PER

Here's a question: Is it possible to leave off Anthony or Durant if one of them ends up winning the scoring title? Just twice in the past 15 years has the league's scoring leader not made 1st team all-NBA (TMac 03-04, Iverson 01-02).

Here's another question: What's more impressive? A 24-11 on a 45-win team or a 25-8 on a 55-win team? That's the question you'd have to answer if you were choosing between Bosh and Nowitzki.

And one last question: What if I told you the NBA's best player of the last decade was actually having a career season? There'd be no way you could keep him off, right? The answer I assume would be, "Kobe isn't on this list." (that would be your answer if you don't know basketball). The other answer I would expect is: "Tim Duncan isn't having a career year." But the numbers say otherwise (Duncan's career ranks in parantheses)

27.2 PER (1st)

58% TS% (t-1st)

12% Off Reb% (1st)

20% Tot Reb% (t-1st)

9% TO% (t-1st)

119 Off Rating (1st... prev. best - 114)

Colour me shocked. Who would have thought that one of the greatest players of all-time could be having his most efficient season at age 33? The only reason his counting numbers aren't that impressive is because his minutes have been monitored closely by Gregg Popovich this season. Listen, I don't expect stats like True Shooting Percentage and Offensive Rating to suddenly gain credence and push Duncan onto the 1st team. I'm just saying... it's pretty amazing stuff what he's doing this season (and I'd put him on the team if I had a vote).

Still not convinced? Well, how about a bonus stat of the day:

27+ PER

33 YEARS OLD OR OVER

Karl Malone (3x)

Michael Jordan

Tim Duncan

Now THAT is an impressive list.

Chris Black is the mastermind behind the basketball blog T .Jose Caldeford and his passion for the orange rock and statistical analysis offers unique insights and in-depth coverage of the Toronto Raptors.