With Atlanta's season spiraling out of control, there is little doubt that GM Don Waddell will trade Ilya Kovalchuk. It was thought the only chance the Thrashers had of hanging on to the superstar was to put together a competitive, playoff-bound team this season. Despite a strong start, a recent slump has dropped them out of a playoff spot, and it's hard to envision them leapfrogging teams like Philadelphia or Boston. So the question now becomes not if he will go, but where will he go?
One team that will not trade for him is Toronto. Waddell will want NHL ready players in return, with some high draft picks thrown into the mix. Apart from Tomas Kaberle, the Leafs do not have the players to interest Atlanta, and also lack their next two first round draft picks. But Kovalchuk becomes an unrestricted free agent after this season, meaning he is available to the highest bidder. Obviously any team that acquires him via trade would have first shot at signing the sniper. But is there any chance he will consider joining the blue and white next season?
Let's look at some key points to see the chances:
Atmosphere – Kovalchuk has publicly stated that he wants to play in a hockey city. Toronto is obviously mad about the Leafs and about hockey in general. Result: Plus
Salary – Kovalchuk is a superstar, with 219 goals since the lockout. He will expect to be paid like a superstar with a long-term contract at a high dollar value. According to thehockeygm.com, the Leafs are nearly $6-million under the cap this season, and only have $30-million committed next season. They seem to have room. Result: Plus
Team – After languishing in Atlanta his entire career, with only one playoff appearance and zero career playoff wins, Kovalchuk will want to join a contender. The Leafs are obviously in no shape to contend in the next year or two. However, there is a chance if he is traded at the deadline to a contender and experiences a playoff run he might be more willing to join Toronto if he sees they have a chance to contend down the road. Result: Minus
Players – Kovalchuk went public in the summer requesting talented players to play with. Waddell responded with Nik Antropov. A few seasons ago, when partnered with Dany Heatley, he won the Maurice Richard trophy as top NHL goal scorer. To picture him alongside Phil Kessel, and down the road a playmaking wizard like Nazem Kadri should bring a smile to his face. However, depth behind those two might be an issue. Result: Neutral
Bottom Line – As a Leafs fan, it's nice to dream of Ilya Kovalchuk in Toronto. He would be a great fit on the top line, and he would be loved by the city. It would even give the Leafs a chance to send a 5K unit on the ice (Kessel-Kadri-Kovalchuk-Kaberle-Komisarek). While the odds are long, the hope that he comes to Toronto still exists. And a little hope is all that Leafs Nation can ask for.




ToX wrote on Feb 4, 2010
Kovi will go where he is told to go, the trick is to sign him after this season. The Leafs shouldn't waste the time and effort. If my calculator works right, if the Leafs were to win EVERY game left, it still gives them 97pts total and no guarantee to the playoffs if that miracle was to happen. So, forget about it Toronto and dream on.Chris wrote on Jan 28, 2010
Well now Burke has officially come out and said "no". But as I said, it was a moot point anyway because Kovalchuk would have said "no" first. Even under the old system, when Toronto would have been one of five teams that could have paid anything for Kovalchuk, he STILL would not have signed here because of where the Leafs are in the standings and where they are in their rebuilding phase. This guy wants to see playoff hockey right now. I say 99% chance he gets his wish and makes a big impact this spring somewhere other than Atlanta.Nic wrote on Jan 27, 2010
Bringing Kovalchuk would go completely against what the Leafs should do, and that is to take a few years, have young talent, build through the draft, just like what Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago are doing.Timbo Daddy wrote on Jan 27, 2010
Another consideration, and a "minus" one, is just how willing Burke would be to sign Kovy to a $10+ million-a-year deal. He has never given any player anything for than a five-year deal, and the 8yr-$80M number being bandied about for Kovalchuk seems too far beyond what a Leaf fan can reasonably expect Burkie to commit to a one-dimensional player like him. That money could buy quality goaltending, plus some complementary young talent to play alongside Kessel.Chris wrote on Jan 25, 2010
The most important point (which overrides all others IMHO) is that Kovalchuk wants to play for a WINNER - right now. His entire career has been wasted in Atlanta playing in half empty buildings and for a losing team. There is a 0% chance of him coming to Toronto because it would be a monumental step backward based on where the franchise is today. Kovalchuk will wind up on a team like the Blackhawks, Flames (a shakeup to get them over the hump), Avalanche, Devils, Sabres, etc... Pick any team at or near the top of the standings with cap room to spare. :)